Regionalism in Africa: Genealogies, Institutions and Trans-State Networks, by Daniel C. Bach, Routledge Studies in African Politics and International Relations. The Journal of Modern African Studies, Cambridge University Press. (Forthcoming 2017, 55(3))
Impact of Economic Diplomacy in Africa: The impact of Regional Integration versus Bilateral Diplomacy on Bilateral Trade,. Handbook of Economic Diplomacy Research, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK, Forthcoming
Revisiting the effect of regional integration on African trade: evidence from meta-analysis and gravity model. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development An International and Comparative Review Volume 26, 2017 - Issue 2
The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States. World Development Volume 83, July 2016, Pages 1–11
Measuring Multi-Membership in Economic Integration and Its Trade Impact: A Comparative Study of ECOWAS and SADC. South African Journal of Economics, (2014), 82(4), 518-530
The Journal of Modern African Studies, Cambridge University Press. (Forthcoming 2017, 55(3))
The paper examines the impact of two main instruments of economic diplomacy - regional integration and bilateral diplomacy on exports among African states. We test whether there is evidence of a trade-off or complementary interaction between regional integration and commercial diplomacy in trade facilitation. We compare the effects of these two instruments of economic diplomacy on bilateral trade by employing a gravity model for 45 African states over the period 1980-2005. The results show that bilateral diplomatic exchange is a relatively more significant determinant of bilateral exports among African states compared to regional integration. We also find a nuanced interaction between these two instruments of economic diplomacy: the trade–stimulating effect of diplomatic exchange is less pronounced among African countries that shared membership of the same regional bloc. Generally, this could mean that there exists a trade-off between regional integration and commercial diplomacy in facilitating exports or a lack of complementarity between these two instruments of economic diplomacy.
Handbook of Economic Diplomacy Research, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK, Forthcoming
Two main shortcomings flaw the estimation of gravity model in previous studies that examined the trade-creating effects of African Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). First, these studies fail to account for the multilateral resistance term. This omission makes the estimates from standard gravity model bias and inconsistent. Second, there is a significant proportion of zero trade flows, however, these studies also fail to account for them properly. They use either the Tobit model or replace zero flows with arbitrary small values. Apart from these problems, they also exhibit considerable heterogeneity in the RTA effects on trade. In this paper, a meta-analysis of previous empirical studies is conducted to derive a combined effect size and also to explain the heterogeneity. In addition, I use the gravity model to compare the trade-creating effect of the main African RTAs. Using the gravity model, I compare the estimation methods of previous studies to the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood estimator that tackles the zero flows. From the meta-analysis, I find a general positive effect of African RTAs of about 27%–32%. A comparative assessment of the RTAs using gravity model shows a striking heterogeneity.
The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development An International and Comparative Review Volume 26, 2017 - Issue 2
In this paper, we draw on established theoretical work to analyze empirically which segments of the population in the target states bear the most cost when economic sanctions are imposed. Using a cross-country analysis of 68 target states from 1960 to 2008, we find robust empirical evidence that the imposition of sanctions has a deleterious effect on income inequality. Focusing on various sanction instruments, financial and trade sanctions were found to have different impacts on income inequality. Lastly, the adverse effect of the sanctions is more severe on income inequality when sanctions span longer duration.
World Development Volume 83, July 2016, Pages 1–11
One of the intriguing aspects of African regional trade agreements (RTAs) is the extent of multi-membership, where many African countries are members of more than one RTA. Using a gravity model for 25 countries and the years 1980-2006, we measure the extent of multi-membership and compare its impact in two major African regional blocs, Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) and Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). We find that the impact of multi-membership critically depends on the characteristics of the multi-membership of regional integration initiatives. We find a positive impact if an additional membership complements the integration process of the original regional integration initiative: overlapping memberships had a much stronger and significant positive effect on bilateral trade within ECOWAS compare with an insignificant impact within the SADC
South African Journal of Economics, (2014), 82(4), 518-530